from Ted Hurlbut

A Tool, Not a Solution

工具而非解决方案

对于这些应用程序中内置的所有功能，仍然需要商人的帮助才能获取信息，对其进行解释并利用其来产生销售额并增加毛利。

20多年前，当我开始以零售购买者的职业生涯时，该行业才刚刚开始从手动商品控制系统过渡到第一个计算机化系统。我记得手动系统很好，因为有很多手工发布销售信息，以及每周手动计算开盘价，所有这些都是为了保持主食的库存，追逐热销商品以及最终不会因存货过多而浪费我们的降价预算。

那时，有些买家非常善于利用此手动系统来最大化他们的销售额，同时保持库存不变。

需求预测工具专家需求预测软件可将预测误差降低50％。另一方面，还有一些采购商一直在努力制定其库存和营业额目标。我记得很清楚，因为我的一些任务要放在这些买家的后面，然后分担这些工作。

回到现在，当我今天与零售商合作时，令我印象深刻的一件事是，有多少事情保持不变。尽管零售信息系统取得了所有进步，但许多买家和零售商的库存仍然过慢，占用了关键的库存现金，并对超额和季末超额库存进行了大幅降价。

这并不是说在过去20年中，在更有效地管理库存方面并没有取得显著成就，因为零售信息技术的明显进步使所有细分领域的领先零售商都能不断建立新的库存效率和生产率基准。

尽管如此，对于零售需求预测和库存管理应用程序的所有进步，库存和商品管理仍然是一门艺术，也是一门科学。对于这些应用程序中内置的所有功能，仍然需要商人的帮助才能获取该信息，对其进行解释并利用它来产生销售额和毛利增长。对于零售商而言，至关重要的是要记住，这些应用程序是工具，而不是经常计费的“解决方案”。

随着这些应用程序变得越来越复杂，并经常在其中合并复杂的销售计划和库存补充模块，能够生成非常详细的信息以及复杂的需求预测和库存管理模型，仍然需要熟练的商人来解释这些信息和模型并采取行动明智地。这些应用程序无法为您解决问题，也无法做出需要日复一日地做出有效管理库存的决策。

对于小型零售商，他们正在使用专门针对小型零售商的企业范围（ERP）软件包，这些软件包中通常包含的需求预测和库存管理功能的局限性使问题变得更加复杂。它们几乎普遍具有用于以任意数量的组合捕获和报告POS数据的最先进的功能，但是仅具有用于预测需求和管理库存的基本功能（通常以基本补充功能的形式）。使用这些软件包的小型零售商所面临的挑战是了解它们的局限性，而不是假设需求预测和库存管理功能足以有效地管理其库存。通常，需要开发系统外预测和开放购买工具来完成工作。

零售的基础保持不变：了解您的客户及其需求和期望，利用过去的历史和当前趋势来准确预测未来的客户需求，计划库存水平以满足需求，根据这些库存计划及时流转收货，计划季末库存水平以最大程度地减少降价风险，并日以继夜地关注整个事情，并随着季节的进行不断更新计划。为了有效地完成所有这些操作，请始终记住，帮助您完成此操作的技术是一种工具，而不是“解决方案”。

For all of the capabilities that have been built into these applications, it still requires a merchant’s touch to take the information, interpret it, and utilize it to generate sales and gross profit increases.

Over 20 years ago, when I started my career as a retail buyer, the industry was just beginning to transition from manual merchandise control systems to the first computerized systems. I remember the manual system well, for there was a lot of hand posting of sales information, and manual calculation of weekly open-to-buys, all in an effort to stay in stock on staple items, chase sales of the hot items, and not end up with overstocks that would obliterate our markdown budgets.

Back then, there were buyers who were very skilled at utilizing this manual system to maximize their sales while keeping inventories in line.

Demand Forecasting ToolExpert Demand Forecasting Software Reduces Forecast Error by 50%On the other hand, there were also buyers who continually struggled to make their inventory and turnover objectives. I remember this well, because several of my assignments were to come in behind these buyers and pick up the pieces.

Come back to the present, and one of the things that strikes me as I work with retailers today is how much some things remain the same. Despite all the advances in retail information systems, many buyers and retailers are still turning their inventories too slowly, tying up critical cash in inventory, and taking heavy markdowns on excess and end of season overstocks.

This is not to say that there hasn’t been remarkable achievements over the past 20 years in managing inventories more effectively, for clearly advances in retail information technology has enabled the leading retailers in all segments to continually establish new benchmarks for inventory efficiency and productivity.

Still, for all of the advances in retail demand forecasting and inventory management applications, inventory and merchandise management remains just as much an art as it does a science. For all of the capabilities that have been built into these applications, it still requires a merchant’s touch to take that information, interpret it, and utilize it to generate sales and gross profit increases. It is critical for retailers to remember that these applications are tools, not “solutions” as they are frequently billed.

As these applications grow ever more sophisticated, frequently incorporating sophisticated sales planning and inventory replenishment modules in them, capable of producing very detailed information and sophisticated demand forecast and inventory management models, it still requires a skilled merchant to interpret the information and models, and act on it wisely. The applications can’t do your thinking for you, and can’t make the carefully considered decisions that need to be made day in and day out to effectively manage inventory.

For smaller retailers, who are using an enterprise-wide (ERP) package targeted specifically to the small retailer, the issue is compounded by the limitations of the demand forecasting and inventory management functions typically included in these packages. They almost universally have state of the art capabilities for capturing and reporting POS data in any number of combinations, but only basic capabilities for forecasting demand and managing inventory (usually in the form of a basic replenishment capability). The challenge for smaller retailers using these packages is to understand their limitations, and not to presume that the demand forecasting and inventory management functions are sufficient to effectively manage their inventory. Frequently, off-system forecasting and open-to-buy tools need to be developed to get the job done.

The basics of retailing remain unchanged: Understand your customers and their needs and expectations, utilize past history and current trends to accurately forecast future customer demand, plan inventory levels to meet that demand, flow receipts in a timely manner based on those inventory plans, plan end of season inventory levels to minimize markdown exposure, and keep your eye on the whole thing day in and day out, updating plans continually as the season progresses. And to do all this effectively, always keep in mind that the technology that helps you do this is a tool, not a “solution”.